Economic pundit Jeff Thredgold offers realistic but optimistic insights

October 15, 2009

KALAMAZOO - The U.S. "dodged a bullet" by avoiding the country's second Great Depression, nationally recognized economist Jeff Thredgold said Thursday in Kalamazoo.

And economic recovery in the U.S. and globally is happening sooner than expected, especially due to the our nation's third-quarter growth.

"There is stability that has returned to the financial markets," said Thredgold, who addressed 350 people Thursday evening at a client-appreciation event hosted by the Wiser Financial Group, of Kalamazoo. "The best forecasting tool is the stock market, which has rallied 60 percent since its lows earlier this year."

Despite that, "We still have our work cut out for us," said Thredgold. "We're 23 months into the worst recession since the Great Depression."

Forty-nine of the 50 states have experienced significant job loss and high unemployment, with Michigan's rate the highest at 15.3 percent.

Thredgold, a member of three national forecasting panels, a well-known economic consultant and a regular guest on national financial shows, said he expects short-term interest rates will remain low.

"It is definitely a good time to refinance a mortgage right now" he said. "Thirty-year fixed rate mortgages are below 5 percent again. If there's any advice I can give right now, it's to refinance your mortgage."

Although Michigan has lost jobs nine years in a row, he projects that the economy here and across the country will "feel better" next year.

"There is a light at the end of the tunnel," he said. "There is better corporate growth, better economic performances, better earnings and higher stock prices."

Wiser Financial Group Partner Ronald B. Wiser said he invited Thredgold to speak to his clients because consumers are often overwhelmed with conflicting financial information from many sources.

"He (Thredgold) has the ability to break down complicated messages and present them in an understandable way," Wiser said.

Thredgold is president of Thredgold Economic Associates, a professional speaking and economic consulting company in Salt Lake City, Utah.